“Ryan Burge (born 1982) is an American political scientist, statistician, and former pastor,” to quote Wikipedia. Burge has become the nationally recognized expert on demographic and other trends on the American religious scene. He has often been cited in stories about the rise of the “Nones” and the decline of Christian churches generally. This past January, Burge published a new book, The Vanishing Church: How the Hollowing Out of Moderate Congregations Is Hurting Democracy, Faith, and Us.

I follow Burge on Facebook, where he often posts about religious and church statistics and trends. Last week, one such post was on the racial makeup of American churches. Surprisingly, the statistics he cited showed that the memberships of nearly all Christian denominations were more white than the US general population (now a little under 60%). There was a sizable spread among them, however.

Denominations with the greatest racial diversity tended to be evangelical. The one notable exception was the Roman Catholic church (65% white) due to its large Hispanic membership (22%). The mainline Protestant denominations were all clustered at the top as being the most predominantly white. At the very top was the Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod (94% white) and at #2 was my denomination, the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ELCA), with a 92% white membership. The next three were Presbyterians (88%), Methodists (87%), and Episcopalians (86%).

What is surprising about that “most white” cluster is that the mainline churches have been known as the ones most supportive of civil rights and diversity. Yet that reputation has clearly had little effect in attracting nonwhite members. What’s more, these denominations have also made a goal of increasing the diversity of their memberships. Those efforts have clearly fallen flat. My denomination is the epitome of this spectacular flop.

When the ELCA was formed in 1987 (through the merger of three Lutheran denominations), it set itself the goal of reaching 20% minority membership within 10 years. I thought, as did many others, that the goal was ridiculous, but “aim high” as they say. It’s obvious now that goal couldn’t be achieved in 100 years. Yet considerable amounts of time, energy, and money have gone into efforts to reach that goal.

Among those efforts have been establishing new congregations in nonwhite communities and recruiting nonwhite pastors. The latter has perhaps had the most success, with the recently elected African American presiding bishop as a notable example. Creating nonwhite congregations have been more difficult, however, as many fail to grow large enough to be financially self-sustaining. Many have closed after ten years or so when denominational support runs out. Now, with congregations shrinking across the board, this effort has become even more problematic.

One example I know fairly well is that of my home congregation. Located in a south suburb of Chicago, Redeemer Lutheran Church was established in the mid-1950s and quickly grew along with its 100% white, baby boomer community. The size of the church and town peaked in the 1970s and began to slowly shrink. Then in the 1990s, African Americans began to move from Chicago into the community, so that it is now about 75% black.

Redeemer shrank in size throughout this period, gaining only a handful of African American members from the community. At some point, a denominational decision was made to actively recruit black members from the surrounding town. The biggest step in this endeavor was to place an African American pastor in the congregation. While there has been some increase in black members, it hasn’t been enough to keep the congregation sustainable. Like so many, it will likely close in the near future.

American mainline Protestant denominations have been disconnected from reality for a long time. It could be said to have begun with the Civil War when most of these churches couldn’t agree on whether slavery was compatible with Christianity, or whether it mattered. Some denominations split over the matter, while others (like Lutherans) fought on both sides of the conflict. This was one of the first modern instances of churches being unable to decide what Christianity fundamentally was about.

The Gilded Age, and the drastic economic inequality that resulted, spurred in reaction the “social gospel” movement, but no denomination formally espoused it. Was Christianity intrinsically about social justice? Churches have wrestled and anguished about this down to the present day.

The 1960s civil rights movement, and the anti-war movement that followed, both drew significant support from Christian clergy and laity. But the mass of the folks in the pews were unmoved, or moved themselves out the door. Mainline church membership peaked in the early 70s, due both to shrinking family size but also to the dissatisfaction of many with what they were hearing from the pulpit on social and political issues. At the same time, evangelical churches began to grow, spurred by their creation of private schools which attracted parents wanting to avoid the growing number of court-ordered integrated public schools. I saw all of this as an adolescent in the church and community where I lived.

Denominational leaders and congregation pastors have often acted on the basis of the members they wished they had rather than those they actually do. They have also acted out of a profound naivety about society and how societal change occurs. My denomination, the ELCA, has a reputation for being a “liberal church.” Yet a majority of its members supported Donald Trump all three times he ran.

In another Burge post on denominational ideology, the ELCA’s membership split was 26% liberal, 28% moderate, and 38% conservative. And this after many years of conservative members leaving the denomination due to its “liberal bent.” Yet this still made the ELCA the 2^nd most liberal mainline church. In 1^st place were Episcopalians, which is the only mainline denomination with liberals as the largest faction (split 38/35/27).

Mainline churches have declined the past 50 years, at least in part, because of their muddle about who they are or what they want to be. For the ELCA to imagine itself, at its inception, becoming a racially diverse church was certainly noble, but it clearly had no idea how to bring that about or what it even meant. To be the 2^nd whitest denomination in the country (only behind the other Lutheran denomination, the LCMS) after 40 years of diversity emphasis and programing can only make you want to laugh or cry.

One of the heroes of those trying to move the church in a more progressive direction has been Dietrich Bonhoeffer (1909-1945). He is especially appreciated for his belief that the church needed to become more faithful to Jesus’ radical vision of the Kingdom of God on earth, espoused in Bonhoeffer’s classic book The Cost of Discipleship (1937).

Bonhoeffer’s beliefs developed over the course of the rise of Nazism in his native Germany. He was appalled by the acquiescence of most German church leaders and members at this development. Nonetheless, what is often ignored today is that Bonhoeffer had little impact on the German church when he was alive. He was, of course, ultimately arrested and executed in the waning days of the Nazi regime.

Thus, Bonhoeffer has had more effect on the church after his death, yet perhaps not in the way he would have wanted. In his letters near the end of his life, Bonhoeffer began to speculate about the need for what he called “religionless Christianity.” It seems Bonhoeffer began to accept that his vision of the Christian life was one the church would never accept or adopt.

Realistically, Bonhoeffer couldn’t imagine the German church ever having become an obstacle to Nazi rule. Nor were other churches any different. Churches, as social institutions, are conservative by their nature. They seek to maintain and protect the social order, not reform it. But that doesn’t sound much like Jesus. And for that reason, states mandate the Ten Commandments be posted in school classrooms but not The Sermon on the Mount (the basis of Bonhoeffer’s 1937 book).

Today, denominational Christianity is dead in the water. Few know anymore what it means to be Lutheran, Methodist, Presbyterian, etc. and even fewer care. The days of such churches being the means of people finding “salvation” are long gone. But the attempt to remake them into agents of social change has also fallen flat. Denominations will only continue to shrink into quaintness and obscurity. Perhaps in the future, as someone speculated, people will go to see the Lutherans in Minnesota the way people have been going to see the Amish in Pennsylvania.

Nonetheless, there will be people who continue to identify as Christians, or perhaps adopt new labels. Many will continue to form communities to support their faith life and explore its meaning for themselves as individuals and collectively. They may seek out overlaps between Christian teaching and practice and that of other religious and spiritual traditions. The rise of the “spiritual but not religious” and of “nondenominational churches” (as awful as some of them are) are both signs of this stirring of people seeking new expressions for their faith life. Perhaps this is another example of Isaiah’s ancient prophecy of God’s working in the world, “Behold I am doing a new thing.”

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